Session Information
CAS Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS) 2009
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Simultaneous Modeling of Paid and Incurred Losses
Track : CLRS Concurrent Sessions
Program Code: ST-3
MODERATOR :
 David Clark, Munich Reinsurance America, Inc
PANELIST (S):
Leigh Halliwell, Chief Manager, L.J. Halliwell, LLC
Eric Cator, Associated Professor Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology
Bouke Posthuma, President and Consulting Actuary, Posthuma Partners
Description
Actuaries are gradually moving from deterministic methods to stochastic reserve models. However, modeling paid and incurred triangles separately ignores the ultimate equality of paid and incurred. This session will present two practical alternatives to modeling paid and incurred losses simultaneously that both result in the ultimate paid and incurred losses being exactly, rather than approximately, equal. There will be a simple spreadsheet that illustrates one of the techniques and a number of case studies where joint methods are compared to other approaches that do not take into account the eventual equality of cumulative paid and incurred losses. For one presentation, a familiarity with the recent Quarg/Mack paper would be useful; for the other presentation basic knowledge of statistics (multivariate normal distribution and maximum likelihood) is sufficient.


No items are available for this session.