Session Information
CAS Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS) 2009
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Practical aspects of using variability / range results
Track
:
CLRS Concurrent Sessions
Program Code:
VR-5
PANELIST
(S):
Josh Wykle, Assistant Actuary-P&C Loss Reserving Division, American Family Insurance Company
Anu Sundram, Associate Actuary & Loss Reserving Manager-P&C Loss Reserving Division, American Family Insurance Company
Description
Obtaining a distribution of reserves is grounded in strict theory. But once the distribution is obtained, how is it used in practice? Panelists during this session will discuss the following questions:
• What are the business applications of creating a distribution of possible outcomes? Or why should management care about distributions?
• How do you know if a distribution is reasonable?
• What happens when the mean of a distribution does not equal a best estimate?
• When management wants a distribution around their booked reserve, is it OK to re-center the best estimate distribution?
• What constitutes a "reasonable range" in the distribution? The 25th and 75th percentiles?
• How does a "reasonable range of outcomes" differ from a "reasonable range of estimates"?
• What are the business applications of creating a distribution of possible outcomes? Or why should management care about distributions?
• How do you know if a distribution is reasonable?
• What happens when the mean of a distribution does not equal a best estimate?
• When management wants a distribution around their booked reserve, is it OK to re-center the best estimate distribution?
• What constitutes a "reasonable range" in the distribution? The 25th and 75th percentiles?
• How does a "reasonable range of outcomes" differ from a "reasonable range of estimates"?
Handout Online
