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A Link Between the One-Year and Ultimate Perspective on Reserve Risk
Program Code:
ERM-1
Date:
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Time:
3:00 PM to 4:30 PM
EST
MODERATOR
:
Thomas Conway, Partner, Ernst & Young, LLP
PANELIST
(S):
Stuart White, Corporate Actuary, XL Capital Ltd
Mark McCluskey, Manager, Ernst & Young LLP
Description
Pillar 1 of Solvency II requires an insurance company to calculate the Solvency Capital Requirement ("SCR"), the capital required to ensure that the company will be able to meet its obligations over a one-year time horizon with a probability of at least 99.5%. The framework for valuing reserve liabilities required by the SCR (99.5%-percentile of liabilities' value over 1-year) is very different from the current actuarial methods for valuing reserve liabilities (best estimate of ultimate value over lifetime of liability). This session will address the issue of building a practical link between these two perspectives. Methods discussed make use of time-scaling properties of reserve variability and the calculation of variability measures based on an empirical analysis of industry data.