When claims and exposure data are nearly non-existent or when long-tailed liabilities are deep in the tail of development, traditional methods do not produce reliable answers, and “extreme development techniques” are required. While some of these methods are extensions of traditional development methods, others are novel approaches to viewing loss development and projecting future claims.

This session will discuss a number of examples of such extreme development methods and models that may be useful to actuaries who are modeling long-tailed lines of business, run-off portfolios, or reinsurance liabilities.